Right now, more than 50% of global maritime trade is at threat of disruption in four key areas of the world. While the conflict in the Red Sea has been high in the news agenda, there are three other maritime passageways that risk becoming chokepoints due to either geopolitical or environmental factors.
Connects Atlantic and Pacific Oceans — ~5% of global container trade volume
Shortcut between Europe and Asia — ~12% of global trade volume
Main artery for Gulf oil — ~20% of global oil trade volume
Connects Indian and Pacific Oceans — ~30% of global trade volume
Sources: IMF Portwatch; Politico; BCG analysis. Copyright © 2024 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.
The Suez Canal, connecting the Red Sea to the Mediterranean, normally accounts for about 12% of global maritime trade.
Since late 2023, some 470 container vessels have already been re-routed away from the Red Sea due to Houthi attacks on international shipping.
Sending ships around the Cape of Good Hope adds between 9 and 17 days of transit time, significantly increasing costs and delivery lead times.
This strait, between Iran to the north and UAE and Oman to the south, is significant for both energy and goods shipping. Some 20%–30% of global oil trade passes through this strait, along with a significant share of global shipping volumes.
If Iran were to be drawn more directly into the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, the free passage of vessels through the strait could be at serious risk.
Iran's potential direct involvement in the Middle East conflict poses the greatest threat to free passage through this critical energy corridor.
Between Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia — the shortest route between East Asia and Europe. Accounts for 30% of global trade. Two-thirds of China's trade passes through here annually, including 80% of its energy imports.
Another critical lane in the region — 40% of the world's container fleet passes through it. Ongoing China-ASEAN disputes over the South China Sea add heightened geopolitical uncertainty to both routes.
The canal links the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, accounting for 5% of total global container trade and 46% of trade from the US East Coast to East Asia.
Severe drought caused by the El Niño weather phenomenon has forced canal authorities to reduce the number of transits and restrict cargo weight, constraining throughput.
"These geopolitical risks could turn into a physical impossibility of moving goods to certain destinations. In the short term it will extend lead times on goods. In the longer term, it is likely to make firms seek shorter supply chains because of the risk and higher capital costs associated with maritime transport."
— Michael McAdoo, BCG Partner & Director, Future of Trade report
"The financial impact is likely to impact producers most as they adapt their routes to market. But, as with almost any disruption, there are also opportunities, especially for freight companies to bring new solutions."
— Peter Jameson, BCG Managing Director & Partner, Shipping
Explore Arctic routes, ship-to-air combinations (e.g., ship to Dubai, fly to Europe), or rail segments to bypass chokepoints.
Consider military or private escorts for cargo ships. Governments have strong national interest in protecting trade and national shipping companies.
Leverage AI for proactive risk management. Increase ship-to-ship connectivity and provide customers real-time cargo updates.
Expand port capacity and warehouse infrastructure. Reassess strategic priorities — as companies did during COVID — to hedge against disruptions.
Use digital twins and modelling to identify bottlenecks and redundancies. Strengthen insurance, financial planning, and pricing strategies to protect margins.
Over 50% of global maritime trade faces potential disruption across four critical chokepoints.
Both geopolitical conflict (Red Sea, Hormuz, Taiwan) and environmental factors (Panama Canal drought) are driving disruption simultaneously.
Companies must act now — diversifying routes, building resilience, and leveraging technology to navigate an increasingly fragile global trade network.
Copyright © 2024 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Sources: IMF Portwatch; Politico; BCG analysis.